CRIME & PUBLIC SAFETY

I. Recent Crime in Providence
Assessment of crime in 2007 versus 2006 reveals that the number of total crime cases in Providence is holding steady. Looking a little bit closer at percent change by type of crime tells us that incidents of rape, robbery, burglary, and motor vehicle theft are either shrinking or staying constant. The sharpest decline of any single type of crime is rape by 24%. In contrast, the most severe increase of any crime is murder by 27%.  Motor vehicle theft and burglary are also showing signs of improvement with drops of 7% and 2% respectively. Events of aggravated assault and larceny escalated marginally.



II. Trends Over Time
Examining crime trends over the last five years provides a more accurate and brighter depiction of the city. The figures indicate that total crime is down by 30%, a substantial decrease. 14,039 incidents of crime were reported in 2002 which is a distinct contrast to the 9,821 cases reported in 2007. Furthermore, all types of crime experienced substantive reductions ranging from a 64% drop in rape to a 17% drop in aggravated assault.
Part I Crime 2002-2007 
Providence, RI   
   

The figures below display the general downward trend of most crime over the last six years. All types of crime were lower in 2007 than they were in 2002. Most notably, larceny cases continued to decrease swiftly with the exception of a slight increase from 2006 to 2007.

III. Neighborhood Crime*
Analysis of crime by neighborhood is useful because it offers additional geographic detail of citywide crime trends. While many neighborhoods experienced much lower levels of crime in 2007, than in previous years, some faced higher levels. South Elmwood suffered from the highest rate change – as the violent crime rate went from roughly 1.8 per 1000 people to 4.6 resulting in a rate increase of 2.8. In other words, in 2006 roughly 2 in a 1000 people were directly impacted by violent crime whereas in 2007 there were roughly 5 in 1000 who were affected. Strictly in terms of rate, Downtown is the neighborhood with the highest rate in the city - 35.4 violent crime incidents per 1000. However, it should be noted that this rate has steadily declined since 2002; the graph below reflects this trend as Downtown’s rate dropped more than any other neighborhood rate from 2006 to 2007. It is even more important to note that the Downtown rate isn’t particularly valid compared to other neighborhoods because it is based on static residential population, which grossly underestimates the daytime/nighttime flow of workers and nightlife. This said, the declining rate in itself is still a positive sign.


 
Overall, the number of robbery incidents per 1000 was relatively static from 2006 to 2007, but a few neighborhoods saw more drastic changes. For example, the number of robberies increased Downtown from 15.1 per 1000 in 2006 to 18.6 per 1000 in 2007. On the other hand, College Hill’s robbery incidents dropped from 2.4 per 1000 in 2006 to 1.1 per 1000 in 2007.


 
Observations of trends in property crime provide an additional perspective. In terms of burglary, Hope’s rate declined substantially from 2006 to 2007. Its 2007 rate of 4.9 incidents per 1000 is the lowest rate in the last six years for this neighborhood. Burglary rate reductions are comparatively dramatic for Valley, Reservoir, Lower South Providence, and South Elmwood as well. In contrast, burglary rates are consistently on the rise for Manton, Fox Point, Mount Pleasant and Charles for the period of 2005-2007.
 

Impressively, motor vehicle theft continues to rapidly decline Downtown. In 2007, 40.3 incidents per 1000 occurred compared to almost 102 per 1000 in 2002. By far, South Elmwood’s motor vehicle theft rate escalated the most from 2006 to 2007.

 * The neighborhoods displayed in figures above are the five with the greatest positive change and the five with the greatest negative change from 2006 to 2007.

Providence Compared to Other Cities
In 2003, Providence ranked 84th for violent crime rate among cities of 100,000 or more people. Detroit, MI ranked first, with Springfield, MA coming in third, Boston at 28th and New York at 94th. A complete breakdown based on Justice Department statistics can be found here.

See the Violent Crime Ranking & Map and Selected Crime Comparison Tables for more detail. The Neighborhood Profiles Public Safety page also has analysis of police calls for service.

Also check out the Providence Police Statistics Page for summary tables, Police District/Post maps, and District-level statistics.

**_{Part I Violent Crime is defined by the FBI as murder, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault. Part I Property Crime is defined as burglary, motor vehicle theft, larceny, and arson.  See the FBI UCR site for official definitions of these crime categories. Quick definitions can be found here.}